On the heels of a 53.4% YoY rise in job cut announcements (released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas), initial jobless claims remain in a world of their own, rising very modestly to 225k from 219k…
Source: Bloomberg
Initial claims (SA and NSA) remain rangebound – showing absolutely ZERO indication of labor market stress…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims were flat at 1.826mm Americans
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, jobless claims are also completely decoupled from the BLS’ official unemployment rate…
Source: Bloomberg
So, JOLTS and Claims are super strong while ‘soft’ survey data (ISM/PMI/UMICH/CONF BOARD) all show labor market indicators tumbling…
Source: Bloomberg
…take your pick to support your political pundit’s choice of how many more rate-cuts we get this year (with stocks and home prices at record highs).
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