Inflation ‘surprise’ data continues to drift back lower (at February lows after this morning’s CPI) but more problematically macro growth ‘surprise’ data is hovering near COVID lockdown lows…
Source: Bloomberg
…and it is that potential growth scare that is dominating traders’ minds as they reduce rate-cut expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
Markets are confused…
… Small Caps up, Dow down; Short-end of yield curve higher in yield, long-end lower; dollar flat as rate expectations slide; growthy Mag7 stocks rally while growthy commodities tumble…
Source: Bloomberg
…and gold and crypto slammed with dollar unch (though gold seemed to see this coming way early)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and distracted…
…as Kamala’s prediction market odds are now 12 pts above Trump’s…
Source: Bloomberg
By the end of the day, The Dow was up, Small Caps down, Nasdaq unch… until a late-day panic-bid put some lipstick on the pig ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales data…
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal back to a 16 handle…
Treasuries were mixed with the short-end lagging (2Y +3bps, 30Y -4bps), but all yields are down on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s price action was a little wild in bond land with the CPI print sending 2Y up to 4.00% where it was firmly rejected…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was dumped overnight and through CPI, only to retrace those losses to end unchanged on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
While the dollar was unchanged, gold prices tumbled, erasing much of Monday’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices followed a similar trajectory, with WTI dropping to a $76 handle intrday (after an unexpected crude build)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was battered back down to $59k after CPI and reports that Kamala’s administration is dumping more Silk Road seizures…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, market-driven financial conditions have eased dramatically in the last few months…
Source: Goldman Sachs
…clearly the market is demanding 200bps of cuts this year…or else, Kamala loses!.
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