The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – came in hotter than expected in May, rising 0.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp) and +2.7% YoY (+2.6% YoY exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly the hyped-up inflationary surge the tariff fearmongers had hoped for as non-durable goods price show modest increase MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose 0.1% MoM (as expected) and the YoY change ticked up to +2.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Non-durable goods flipped from deflationary to inflationary (modestly) in May…
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore PCE inched higher on a YoY basis (from +3.07% to +3.12% YoY)…
Source: Bloomberg
Both personal income and spending tumbled in May (the former by the most since Sept 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the income side, govt workers saw wage growth slow:
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Private worker wages rose 4.6% yoy, up from 4.4% and the highest since Dec 24
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Govt worker wages rose 5.2%, down from 5.3% and lowest since Oct 22
But, Income’s drop was mainly due to a plunge in government handouts…
Source: Bloomberg
With the biggest drop in social security benefit handouts ever as DOGE killed all the payments to those ‘dead’ or extremely old people…
Source: Bloomberg
The savings rate dropped significantly to 4.5% of DPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Is there enough here to nudge The Fed towards a cut? Or do we keep waiting for the ‘lagged’ effect of tariffs to finally show up in prices?
This is the ‘transitory’ no inflationary impact period!
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