The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pulled it up 2.8% YoY (hotter than the +2.7% YoY expected) – the hottest since February…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly the hyped-up inflationary surge the tariff fearmongers had been pushing.
Services inflation is accelerating as are Durable Goods costs on a MoM basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Deeper under the hood, household supplies seems to be getting hit with tariff trauma…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.6% YoY (hotter than expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
At the headline level, all the sectors (aside from non-profits) are accelerating…
Source: Bloomberg
Super Core PCE – Services Ex-Shelter – dropped to +3.18% YoY in June…
Source: Bloomberg
Healthcare costs are starting to pick up (not exactly tariff-driven)…
Source: Bloomberg
Both income and spending rose 0.3% MoM in June (after May’s surprise decline in both)…
Source: Bloomberg
Wages are re-accelerating:
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June Private worker wages and salaries up 4.7% YoY, up from 4.5% in May
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June Govt worker wages and salaries up 5.5% YoY, up from 5.4% in May
On a YoY basis, Spending and Income are both up 4.7% (in nominal terms)…
Source: Bloomberg
With the savings rate unchanged at 4.5%…
Source: Bloomberg
Is there enough here to nudge The Fed towards a cut? Or do we keep waiting for the ‘lagged’ effect of tariffs to finally show up in prices?
This is the ‘transitory’ no inflationary impact period!
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