Positive macro, central bank love-fest, and AI catalysts… buy all the things…
US Macro ‘outperformed’ expectations this week amid more pro-cyclical data points…
Source: Bloomberg
…which combined with a dovish tilt by Powell (which lifted 20-24 rate-cut expectation)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and positive AI catalysts…
Source: Bloomberg
Put this all together – rates, growth, and secular momentum –and it is perhaps not surprising that stocks have reached another all-time high in the US.
Led to a solid week for all the majors with Nasdaq outperforming…
The S&P 500 trades at a 2025 P/E of 20+.
So the question may simply be: can the rates/growth/secular innovation dynamic be sustained long enough to allow corporate earnings to grow into the current market’s valuation?
Shorts were aggressively squeezed Wednesday an Thursday…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the week lower, including the long-end (-4bps), but the short-end outperformed (-13bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Which left the curve (2s30s) stepper on the week….
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar roared back to six week highs this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ETFs saw large net outflows this week…
Source: Bloomberg
And that weighed on the underlying with spot bitcoin back at $64,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the week around unchanged, despite a hige spike intraweek to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices ended the week unchanged, roundtripping from the early week gains…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, this is not good news for Biden and his biddies…
Source: Bloomberg
Pump prices are heading up… and Biden’s approval rating down at the sane tune.
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