S&P Erases YTD Losses As ‘Policy Uncertainty’ Plunges

Following yet another decline in CPI (but… but… but… tariffs are inflationary… or maybe just the “lack of inflation from tariffs is transitory”), the S&P joined the Nasdaq 100 in the green year-to-date, erasing all of the panic-puke, ‘end of the world’ prognostication from the mainstream media and establishment.

It’s different this time – ish…

The reflexive nature of global market pain leading to geopolitical negotiations appears to have won out once again as “Uncertainty” around US trade policy has plunged …

…erasing all of the post-Liberation Day spike.

So what will happen to all those CEOs whose sentiment had collapsed to a lower level than at the peak (trough) of COVID (while not firing anyone)? With uncertainty evaporating, will they all be exuberant in a few days?

Maybe, just maybe, it’s time to ignore the sentiment surveys (and their clear implicit bias), ignore the propaganda being pumped out non-stop, and watch the hard data.

And now, thanks to the FT we learn that we have China’s capitulation to thank for all of this. 

Recall that on April 25 we reported something which no other US media outlet carried, namely that a “Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department” in a meeting shrouded in secrecy as China “Demanded All Photos Be Deleted.”

All except for the one below:

Naturally, we suggested that this was an overture to China offering an olive branch to the Trump admin on US soil in hopes of reaching a trade deal, a speculation which the TDS-crowd fumed over.

It turns out we were right, and as the FT writes, “the first meeting to break the US-China trade deadlock was held almost three weeks ago in the basement of the IMF headquarters, arranged under cover of secrecy.”

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who was attending the IMF spring meetings in Washington, met China’s finance minister Lan Fo’an to discuss the near complete breakdown in trade between the world’s two biggest economies, according to people familiar with the matter.

The previously unreported encounter was the first high-level meeting between US and Chinese officials since Donald Trump’s inauguration and the launch of his tariff war. The Treasury declined to comment on the secret meeting.

The talks culminated this weekend in Geneva with Bessent and He Lifeng, China’s vice-premier, agreeing a ceasefire that would slash respective tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days.

All of the above is correct, except that the encounter was “previously unreported” – we reported here first on April 25 that on April 24 the Chinese were seen entering the Treasury department under a shroud of secrecy. :

Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department, Demands Photos Be Deleted: Report https://t.co/CRh07l2K1Z

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025

The date April 24 is interesting for another reason: that’s the day Chinese state media vowed that it would not engage in trade talks without complete tariff surrender, with Yahoo News reporting that “China Slams the Door on Trump: No Trade Talks Without Total Tariff Surrender.”

… and at the same time also lying that there are “no negotiations with the Trump administration over tariffs”:

And yet, amid all this propaganda, Beijing was secretly negotiating with the US just a few hundred feet from the White House, and the outcome would be the Geneva tariff deal which sent stocks soaring…. although anyone who had read our report and had put on a bullish trade long ago, would have made an absolute killing.

Then again, one didn’t need the FT to confirm what we first reported three weeks ago: we could just listen to Chuck Schumer’s latest installment in his endless tirade of lies, and flip it…

Chuck Schumer claims Trump caved to the CCP, and China has “gotten the better of Donald Trump.”

America is winning. Cope harder, Chuck. pic.twitter.com/tp4ZTvXx8m

— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) May 13, 2025

… to get the truth.

*  *  *

 Try IQ Biologix Astaxanthin – a super potent antioxidant (read more here).