For a change, we get to see producer prices first this month (before tomorrow’s CPI extravaganza). While central bankers are sure this resurgence is a blip – a transitory rebound on the way to 2% – analysts are far less convinced with expectations signaling a big jump in inflation in December data.
Analysts were right on direction but not on magnitude as headline PPI rose 0.2% MoM (+0.4% exp), pulling the YoY PPI up to +3.3% from +3.0% prior (but below the 3.5% exp) – the highest since Feb 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in PPI was driven by the biggest MoM jump in Energy costs since February (but was offset by a big swing in food prices, back to MoM deflation)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core PPI was unchanged MoM, leaving the YoY Core PPI flat at +3.5%…
Source: Bloomberg
With December’s data in the bag, we can take a look at the Biden administration’s disastrophe.
Under Biden, producer prices rose a triple the pace they did under Trump…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, as a nice parting gift for the Trump admin, Biden has launched the toughest sanctions yet on Russian crude imports, sending oil prices soaring and implying a notable jump in underlying inflation (after months of energy driving deflation)…
Source: Bloomberg
Can Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policies counter this overseas supply threat?
Judging by Small (and Large) business confidence…
Source: Bloomberg
…they seem convinced the economy will be ok.
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